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According to @baldingsworld coal supply is not the issue. Rather it is that power generators are required to sell power at a fixed price per kwh while buying coal at the spot (escalating) price causing losses on every kw produced. There was a headline Friday that the generators were being allowed to raise rates. So we should see this conflict begin to abate.

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The professor is correct that this is not a pure supply/demand problem. China is 90% self-sufficient for coal. However, what they have done during the Australia coal embargo is tap strategic reserves, which are now depleted. The extreme rationining in place was to prevent allowing the generators to raise rates, and that has also failed. That does not resolve the underlying issue of coal supply now being hand to mouth ahead of winter. Smuggling supplies of coal from North Korea is also not a scalable solution.

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Are there reasons alternate sources of coal cannot be tapped? Many mines locally (IL Basin) have closed due to cost to mine being above market price for the coal. It would seem to be shooting yourself in the foot to continue with apparently unnecessary rolling power outages. But maybe there's a bigger picture I'm not seeing.

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